Michael Saylor calls for Bitcoin to reach one million or ten million dollars again: wait until the day when Strategy controls 5% or 7% of the total BTC supply
MicroStrategy once again issued an "orange dot" signal. CEO Michael Saylor believes that if he holds 7% of the supply of Bitcoin, the price can soar to $10 million; however, the stock price has halved, ETF competition and regulatory pressure are testing the limits of this unlimited buying machine.
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Michael Saylor on December 20 On the cold night of September, he once again posted an "orange dot" chart symbolizing technical buying points on the social platform, announcing to the market that he had not let go yet. The CEO of MicroStrategy (MSTR) once again claimed in an exclusive interview that if the company eventually accumulates 7% of the total supply of Bitcoin (BTC), the price of a single coin is expected to be $10 million; the company currently holds about 3%, which means it needs to absorb more than 800,000 more coins to reach the target.
The quantitative gamble behind the orange dots
Saylor likened Bitcoin to "digital capital" and claimed that it was breaking away from traditional finance at a speed exceeding that of gold and real estate. He emphasized the scarcity function to combat inflation and once again proposed a bold model: when the position is 5%, the price can touch US$1 million; when it reaches 7%, it can exceed US$10 million. This logic is based on "supply shock" - when a large number of circulating Bitcoins are locked into cold wallets, the market is forced to reprice in a non-linear manner.
"The scarcity of Bitcoin is a financial scalpel that can accurately cut away the erosion of wealth caused by inflation."
The current book value of the 671,000 Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is approximately US$60 billion, accounting for nearly 3% of the total supply. To reach the 7% threshold, the company must continue to activate the capital market and move more BTC out of circulation.
How the capital market arbitrage flywheel is driven
The core of this flywheel is the cycle of "stock and debt financing → buying coins → NAV premium pushes up the stock price → refinancing". According to public information, MicroStrategy spent $963 million on December 12 to increase its holdings of 10,624 BTC. Although its original enterprise software business has turned a profit, the company obtained relatively cheap funds through the issuance of new shares and convertible bonds, and then invested the funds in physical Bitcoin. Throughout 2025, its Bitcoin return rate remained in the 22%–26% range, supporting the narrative of an “infinite buying machine.”
Share price cuts expose leverage vulnerability
However, when market sentiment cools, the flywheel may also stall. MSTR shares have fallen roughly 60% from their July highs, with premiums contracting sharply, suggesting that the ETF along with other pipelines are eroding its uniqueness as a proxy for BTC. Uncertainty over MSCI index inclusion and regulatory variables such as the CLARITY Act have heightened investor concerns. The company even rarely sold a small amount of BTC to adjust operations, indicating that the high-leverage strategy is not without limits.
The downward revision of the stock price not only affects the market value, but also increases the cost of future refinancing; if the premium narrows further, the flywheel may get stuck. The market therefore began to test: Can MicroStrategy withstand short-term liquidity pressure under the long-term bullish scenario?
The follow-up to the Trump era?
MicroStrategy stands at the center of tension between the forces of accumulation and selling. If Saylor wants to prove its $10 million prophecy, it must first ensure that in an environment of volatile stock prices and rising financing costs, the flywheel will not stop due to broken leverage. Although the orange dot is lit again, the market also knows that there is often only a liquidity crisis between fanaticism and feasibility.
In the short term, Saylor’s quantitative models and policy trends have injected imagination into Bitcoin; in the long term, whether MicroStrategy can become the tipping point of “supply shock” depends on its control of its own financial structure. The next time the orange signal comes on, Wall Street will not only be concerned about how many more coins it has bought, but also whether this unlimited buying machine can continue to operate.
